These are bad days for Italy. The weather has something insane: the South is totally at the mercy of the weather, tons of snow are falling since the beginning of February and thousands of people are in serious troubles. Up North, though, the conditions are embarrassingly dry and the low quantities of snow are not a suitable aid for a winter ascent of Monte Civetta (for the forgetful or the new followers, here you can find the description of the tour). Our Mammut official guide explained that "the weather forecast for the next two weeks and the current conditions (windy snow and ice) do not permit the climb in a safe way".
Total amount of snowfalls @ 1900 m - Monte Civetta.
The snow amount is really poor, but the risk of spontaneous avalanches remains considerable in the exposed areas over 2000 m (never forget to take a look at the avalanche survival curve in any case).
Air temperature @ 1900 m - Monte Civetta.
It seems that we can't do anything else but waiting for better conditions (and hoping for some additional snow to help us in the ascent). The team will continue his training in any case (have you ever tried to run at 4000 m?) and all the updates will be published here.
In the picture below you can find today's weather forecast for the next 15 days: the red line shows the mean temperatures in the last 30 years at around 1500 m, while the other lines show the various predictions of the different mathematical models (left "y" scale, [° C]); the very low curves are the predictions of the precipitations (right "y" scale, [mm] of rain or [cm] of snow).
Weather forecast for the next two weeks (GFS model).